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侨英频道 | GDP tops 100 trillion yuan for the first time 

2021-01-20 21:25 |浙江侨联

  'Better-than-expected results' signal high-quality growth momentum in 2021

  China's stronger-than-expected economic rebound and continuous structural improvements last year have signaled that the country's pursuit of high-quality growth is set to gain more momentum in 2021, officials and experts said on Monday.

  The world's second-largest economy grew by 2.3 percent in 2020, and it should be the only major economy to have achieved annual growth, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

  The country's annual GDP came in at 101.6 trillion yuan ($15.7 trillion) last year, surpassing 100 trillion yuan for the first time and indicating that its overall national strength has reached a new level, the bureau said.

  "Main targets and tasks for economic and social development have been accomplished with better-than-expected results," said Ning Jizhe, head of the NBS.

  Economic growth normalized to pre-COVID-19 levels in the fourth quarter last year and hit 6.5 percent year-on-year, up from 4.9 percent in the third quarter, Ning said, adding that the achievements were hard-earned amid the pandemic and global economic recession.

  Multiple factors will help sustain steady economic recovery into 2021, he said, pointing to the country's vast domestic market as having provided a strong buffer against external uncertainties while accelerating digitalization spurs high-quality development.

  The government will further reform efforts to narrow income gaps and boost new consumption growth points, while expanding investment to address weak links in the economy, Ning said.

  Experts said they expect reviving consumption to replace investment and exports as the main driver of economic growth in 2021, underpinning strong annual growth forecast between 7 percent and 9 percent.

  A low comparison base in 2020, ramped-up investment in manufacturing sectors and new types of infrastructure as well as exports buoyed by the global economic recovery will also help sustain China's economic rebound, they said.

  The country's consumer market has gradually recovered from the effects of COVID-19, with the growth in retail sales recovering to 4.6 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter, versus 0.9 percent in the third quarter, even as local COVID-19 cases constrained consumption in December, according to the NBS.

  Recovering incomes and stabilizing employment have boosted experts' confidence in the anticipated recovery in consumption. The surveyed urban jobless rate nationwide was 5.2 percent in December and 5.6 percent on average for the whole year, below the government's annual control target of 6 percent, the NBS said.

  Per capita disposable income grew by 2.1 percent in real terms to 32,189 yuan in 2020, with income growth for rural residents coming in at 3.8 percent and outpacing their urban counterparts, the bureau said.

  "The narrowing income gap between urban and rural residents, in tandem with the quicker sales of goods related to consumption upgrades in the fourth quarter, signaled that consumption upgrading will percolate to lower-tier cities and rural areas, creating new growth points of consumption," said Cheng Shi, chief economist at ICBC International.

  Accelerating digitalization should be another key structural improvement in 2020 that will help bolster high-quality development this year, experts said, with the use of 5G, intelligent technologies and the internet of things to further inject economic momentum.

  The value-added output of high-tech manufacturing sectors rose by 7.1 percent last year, outpacing the 2.8 percent growth for the whole industrial sector, according to the NBS. Investment in high-tech industries grew by 10.6 percent in 2020, versus 2.9 percent of total fixed-asset investment.

  As the economy embarks on the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25), which turns self-reliance in science and technology into a strategic pillar for national development, investment in innovation and new types of infrastructure will be stepped up this year, experts said.

  Iris Pang, chief China economist at Dutch bank ING, said she expects active fiscal stimulus in 2021 to support technology research and development, companies in difficulties and the development of green energy, while monetary policy is expected to remain unchanged given an upbeat growth picture.

  China's GDP is expected to grow by 12 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021 and 7 percent for the whole year, Pang said.

  Despite promising growth prospects, officials and experts highlighted the need to be wary of mounting uncertainties, especially the pandemic situation and geopolitical tensions.

  Uncertainties to recovery

  Recent local resurgence of COVID-19 cases in some areas has brought uncertainties to future economic recovery, but the impact should be limited as the country has established plans to rapidly contain the spread and minimize related economic losses, said Ning of the NBS.

  "For this year, should global growth not recover, policymakers in China still have the tools to implement stimulus support, especially given that relative to other central bankers last year, they were very conservative with easing measures," said Catherine Yeung, investment director at Fidelity International, a global asset manager.

  【背景阅读】

  2.3%背后的中国经济答卷——从首破百万亿看经济大势

  “增长2.3%!”国家统计局2021年1月18日发布的数据显示,2020年,中国经济在疫情大考下实现正增长,经济总量首次迈上100万亿元新台阶。

  新冠肺炎疫情“黑天鹅”突袭,世界经济陷入衰退。巨大的不确定性之下,作为全球率先实现正增长的主要经济体,中国经济引擎作用愈发凸显。

  2020经济成绩单:来之不易,提振信心

  这个2.3%,来之不易。

  百年不遇的新冠肺炎疫情突然暴发,世界经济陷入第二次世界大战结束以来最严重的衰退,一些国家遏制打压全面升级……过去一年,中国经济面临的“三重冲击”前所未有。

  面对空前冲击,中国统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展取得明显成效。

  一季度同比下降6.8%,二季度增长3.2%,三季度增长4.9%,四季度增长6.5%……2020年,我国率先控制住疫情、率先复工复产、率先实现经济增长由负转正,经济增速逐季划出一道上扬曲线。

  “这些成绩是在新冠肺炎疫情肆虐全球、世界经济陷入严重衰退、外部环境更加复杂严峻的情况下取得的,来之不易,成之惟艰。”国家发展改革委副主任兼国家统计局局长宁吉喆说。

  这个2.3%,含金量高。

  2020年四季度6.5%的经济增速,已经回到潜在增长水平,中国经济逐步恢复常态。全年经济总量突破100万亿元,标志着中国经济实力和综合国力迈上新台阶。

  现行标准下农村贫困人口全部脱贫,832个贫困县全部摘帽,决战脱贫攻坚取得决定性胜利。

  中国成为全球唯一实现货物贸易正增长的主要经济体,利用外资逆势增长,区域全面经济伙伴关系协定成功签署,改革开放在新的起点上再出发。

  城镇新增就业1186万人,超额完成全年目标任务;全国城镇调查失业率全年平均5.6%,低于6%左右的预期目标;居民收入增长和经济增长基本同步……2020年,民生得到有力保障。

  这个2.3%,提振信心。

  联合国发布的数据显示,2020年至2021年,全球经济产出累计损失将达8.5万亿美元,几乎抹去之前4年的全部增长。

  这一背景下,中国经济的持续复苏,显得更为耀眼。经济合作与发展组织发布的报告预计,2021年中国对全球经济增长的贡献将超过三分之一。

  “中国比以往任何时候都更加表现出世界经济火车头的作用。”法国《世界报》网站文章如此评价。

  新起点再出发:未来“考卷”难度不小

  首次突破百万亿元,对中国经济来说意味着什么?

  一方面,这标志着我国经济实力、科技实力、综合国力又跃上了新的大台阶。但也要清醒看到,我国人均国内生产总值仍略低于世界平均水平,与主要发达国家仍有较大差距。

  宁吉喆表示,我国仍然是世界上最大的发展中国家,实现发展远景目标仍需艰苦奋斗。

  新起点上再出发。2021年,摆在中国经济面前的,是一张难度不小的“考卷”。

  放眼全球,疫情带来冲击和变数,世界经济面临不确定性,复苏不稳定、不平衡;纵观国内,经济恢复基础尚不牢固,做好“六稳”“六保”工作、防范化解风险的任务依然艰巨。

  近一段时间,国际机构对2021年中国经济增速普遍给出较高预测,大部分都在8%左右。

  在中央财经委员会办公室副主任韩文秀看来,2021年中国经济增速在数字上看可能会比较高,主要是由于2020年基数较低导致的。从两年平均来看,中国经济增速预计5%左右,“数字好看日子未必都好过”。

  对此,国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部部长陈昌盛认为,疫情变化和外部环境尚存在诸多不确定性,汇率波动、大宗商品价格震荡、中小企业困难等风险不容忽视。

  直面挑战,更要满怀信心。

  人均GDP连续两年超过1万美元、拥有全球最具成长性的内需市场、制造业增加值预计连续11年居世界第一位、5G终端连接数已超2亿、技能人才达到2亿人……2021年1月18日发布的数据,透出中国经济长期向好的坚实基础和强大后劲。

  “我们既要看到挑战、困难、风险的一面,也要看到机遇、有利和希望的一面。”宁吉喆说,我国发展仍处于重要战略机遇期,要发挥优势、克服困难,实现经济的持续恢复、稳定运行和健康发展。

  确保“十四五”开好局、起好步

  2021年1月13日,海南自由贸易港2021年首批建设项目集中开工,项目数量超百个;2021年1月15日,62个外资项目在上海集中签约,投资额超百亿美元……新年新气象,各地正积极行动。

  推进国家实验室建设和国家重点实验室体系重组;制定出台《加快培育新型消费实施方案》;制定出台自贸试验区跨境服务贸易负面清单……新年新布局,多部门谋划新招。

  “十四五”开局之年,中国已经“动起来”。

  着力保持经济运行在合理区间——

  宏观政策要保持连续性、稳定性、可持续性;积极的财政政策要提质增效、更可持续;货币政策要“稳”字当头……已经明确的宏观政策取向,为2021年经济运行稳基调、控大局。

  国务院发展研究中心党组书记马建堂分析,宏观政策的设计,必须抓实风险防范和化解,进一步巩固经济恢复成果,为推进高质量发展和构建新发展格局营造积极良好的宏观环境。

  确保构建新发展格局迈好第一步——

  强化国家战略科技力量;增强产业链供应链自主可控能力;坚持扩大内需这个战略基点……以构建新发展格局为统领,中央经济工作会议明确了2021年经济工作八项重点任务。

  “2021年稳增长压力不像往年那么大,这形成一个难得的时间窗口。”韩文秀表示,要用好这个宝贵时间窗口,着力深化供给侧结构性改革,集中精力推进改革创新,为经济持续恢复、高质量发展打下良好基础。

  “十四五”新开局,踏上新征程的中国经济必将乘风破浪、继续前行,为世界经济注入持久动力。

  来源|中国日报

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